Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4603
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4603 · ORD → SDF
departs 7:29 PM CT · arrives 10:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.