Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4607
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4607 · AVL → LGA
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 52%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.