Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4614
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4614 · CHS → LGA
departs 12:05 PM ET · arrives 2:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
12pm departures from CHS are usually not late
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.