Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4619 LANDED 10:34 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

YX 4619 · LGA → CAE

took off 9:01 PM ET · landed 10:34 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

CAE (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4619 · LGA → CAE

Odds over time