Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4630 · DTW → LGA
departs 5:22 PM ET · arrives 7:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 44%
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.