Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4630 · LGA → DTW
departs 2:45 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 29%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.