Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4634
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4634 · JFK → BOS
departs 9:35 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
JFK is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.