Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4637
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4637 · PHL → IND
departs 6:19 PM ET · arrives 8:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.