Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4663
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4663 · ORD → BWI
departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 12:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.