Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4668
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4668 · SDF → ORD
departs 6:57 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 22%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.