Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4674
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4674 · LGA → JAX
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 9:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 14%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.