Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
YX 4678 · STL → BOS
departs 7:51 PM CT · arrives 11:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.28 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.