Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4704
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4704 · ORD → SDF
departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 10:36 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.