Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4711 · CMH → PHL
departs 8:05 AM ET · arrives 9:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 6%
Thu 10/8 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↓
8am departures from CMH are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.35 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.