Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4714
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4714 · MDT → BOS
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:31 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 6%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 9%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MDT is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDT (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.