Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4734
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4734 · JFK → PIT
departs 2:35 PM ET · arrives 4:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 15%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.