Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4748
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4748 · ORD → MSY
departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 12:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 21%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.