Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4758
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4758 · CLE → LGA
departs 4:02 PM ET · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 31%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.56 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.