Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4774
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4774 · PWM → ORD
departs 7:24 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.13 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.