Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4776
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4776 · ORD → CVG
departs 10:00 PM CT · arrives 12:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.05 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.