Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4788
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
YX 4788 · BUF → BOS
departs 7:15 AM ET · arrives 8:51 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Fri 10/2
Sat 10/3 4%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from BUF are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.07 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.