Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4793 · LGA → IND
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 8:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.