Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4799 · CMH → LGA
departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 8:23 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 3%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from CMH are usually not late
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.49 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.