Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4805
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4805 · RDU → JFK
departs 5:31 AM ET · arrives 7:16 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 6%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 4%
Thu 10/8 5%
Fri 10/9 5%
Sat 10/10 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from RDU are usually not late
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.