Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5604
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5604 · MEM → BOS
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 10:01 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MEM that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↑
MEM is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MEM are usually not late
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.12 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.