Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5631 · IND → BOS
departs 6:45 AM ET · arrives 9:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 4%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from IND are usually not late
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.59 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.