Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5634
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5634 · DTW → CMH
departs 10:50 PM ET · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+34 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +34 pts in 24h
+34 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +44 pts in 24h
+44 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.