Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5642
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5642 · LGA → IND
departs 11:45 AM ET · arrives 2:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.