Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5646
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5646 · LGA → IND
departs 2:43 PM ET · arrives 5:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.