Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5649 · CMH → JFK
departs 12:30 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.40 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.