Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5685 · JFK → PIT
departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 5:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 14%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.