Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5696
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 5696 · LGA → IND
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 10:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 10%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 3%
Thu 10/8 7%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.