Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5715 · LGA → PIT
departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 2:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 14%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.