Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5719
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 5719 · PWM → LGA
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.