Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5796 LANDED 11:14 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

YX 5796 · LGA → BUF

took off 10:23 PM ET · landed 11:14 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BUF (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5796 · LGA → BUF

Odds over time