Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5798
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5798 · JFK → BOS
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 41%
Thu 10/8 30%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.