Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5810
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5810 · CMH → DTW
departs 12:05 PM ET · arrives 1:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 4%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.7 in of rain forecast at DTW that day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.38 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.