Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5812 · CMH → DTW
departs 8:15 AM ET · arrives 9:22 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 4%
Thu 10/8 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DTW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 2.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.