Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5825 LANDED 10:42 PM ET, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

YX 5825 · LGA → PWM

took off 9:58 PM ET · landed 10:42 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

PWM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5825 · LGA → PWM

Odds over time