Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5826
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5826 · DTW → IND
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.23 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.