Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5829 · EWR → BOS
departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 4:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 33%
Thu 10/8 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
61%
chance · ±0 pts
+31 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
61%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
34%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +31 pts in 24h
+31 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.