Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5831 · BOS → LGA
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 7:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 33%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 47%
Thu 10/8 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
39%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.