Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5835
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5835 · JFK → IAD
departs 10:14 AM ET · arrives 11:49 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.