Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5845 · PHL → BOS
departs 9:30 AM ET · arrives 10:58 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 12%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 12%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.