Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5859 · MVY → JFK
departs 1:18 PM ET · arrives 2:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 13%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
MVY is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MVY (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.