Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5862 · LGA → GSO
departs 11:42 AM ET · arrives 1:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at GSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to GSO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
GSO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.