Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1205 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1205 · MCO → LAX

departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±3 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1205 · MCO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?