AA 1240 · DTW → DFW

took off 6:13 AM ET · landed 7:38 AM CT (scheduled 6:01 AM ET → 7:56 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DFW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1240 · DTW → DFW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DFW?