Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1247 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1247 · PHL → IND

departs 9:55 PM ET · arrives 11:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

IND (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1247 · PHL → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?