Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1402 LANDED 9:06 AM MT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

AA 1402 · TPA → PHX

took off 8:06 AM ET · landed 9:06 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1402 · TPA → PHX

Odds over time